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peak oil and the coming energy crisis

The background, the facts, figures, politics and analysis.

Key Statistics

A guide to some of the units used

1 KW = 1 kilowatt = 1,000 watts (1 kw is roughly one bar on a domestic electric fire or the equivalent of nearly 17 x 60W light bulbs)

1 MW = 1 megawatt = 1,000,000 watts.

1 m2 = 1 square metre = a square with both width and length of 1 metre.

Crude oil production and consumption is measured in barrels.

1 bbl = 1 barrel = 35 UK gallons = 42 US gallons
(the difference arises because while both a US and a UK gallon is made up of 8 pints, a US pint is made up of 16 fluid ounces compared to 20 fluid ounces in the UK).

1 mbbl = 1 million barrels. The UK consumption of crude is almost 2mbbl per day.

A definition

When an article refers to "oil fuelled" or "oil driven" vehicles the term does not mean the vehicle itself runs on crude oil, but is actually running on a derivative product such as petrol, diesel or aviation fuel.

When the term "post oil" is used, it does not mean a situation which is completely devoid of oil. Instead it means a situation which acknowledges some crude oil reserves do exist, are being, or are capable of being, extracted but the cost of extraction, processing and delivering a useful component of those reserves (such as petrol) is so prohibitive that such undertakings are rare, isolated and not continuous.

Oil reserves (conventional crude oil)

There exist two significantly different estimates of the amount of conventional oil that may ultimately be extracted from the Earth. These estimates were made by the United States Geological Survey (USGS) and separately by industrial/academic experts.

The USGS estimates that there are approximately 3000 billion barrels of conventional oil (Bbo) that may ultimately be extracted. Because the world has already consumed approximately 1000 Bbo, that leaves approximately 2000 Bbo as the remaining conventional oil.

The industrial/academic experts (such as Colin Campbell, Jean Laherrere, and Ken Deffeyes) estimate that approximately 2000 Bbo may ultimately be extracted. As above, because the world has already consumed approximately 1000 Bbo, that leaves approximately 1000 Bbo as the remaining conventional oil.

(Colin J. Campbell and Jean Laherrere, "The End of Cheap Oil", Sci. Am. 278 (3), 78-83 (1998). )

Table: Reported reserves of top ten countries (January 2002) Conventional crude

Rank Country Reserves
(mbbl)
     
1 Saudi Arabia 261,750
2 Iraq 112,500
3 United Arab Emirates 97,800
4 Kuwait 96,500
5 Iran 89,700
6 Venezuela 77,685
7 Russia 48,573
8 Libya 29,500
9 Mexico 26,941
10 Nigeria 24,000

(Source: Z magazine)

Some sources claim that Canada has the world's second largest reserves. This is incorrect because it measures what are known as "tar sands" a highly dispersed form of oil which some aurithorities have calculated will need more energy input to mine and refine than can ever be generated from the oil itself. It is classified under non-conventional reserves.

Oil production (conventional crude oil)

Table: Reported production rates of top ten countries (January 2002) Conventional crude

Rank Country Production
(mbbl/day)
1 Saudi Arabia 8.528
2 United States 8.091
3 Russia 7.014
4 Iran 3.775
5 Mexico 3.560
6 Norway 3.408
7 China 3.297
8 Venezuela 3.137
9 Canada 2.749
10 United Arab Emirates 2.550
(11 United Kingdom 2.540 )

Total world daily: 75.226
Total world annual: 28,180

(Source: Z magazine)

Oil consumption (conventional crude oil)

The US is the world's single biggest consumer of the black stuff burning nearly 20 million barrels a day. The UK consumes less than one tenth of this but we still have to import crude to meet our demands because the North Sea fields are in decline.

Table: Reported production rates of top 20 countries (January 2002) Conventional crude

Rank Country consumption
(mbbl/day)
     
1 United States 19.993
2 Japan 5.423
3 China 4.854
4 Germany 2.814
5 Russia 2.531
6 South Korea 2.126
7 Brazil 2.123
8 Canada 2.048
9 France 2.040
10 India 2.011
11 Mexico 1.932
12 Italy 1.881
13 United Kingdom 1.699
14 Spain 1.465
15 Saudi Arabia 1.415
16 Iran 1.109
17 Indonesia 1.063
18 Netherlands 0.881
19 Australia 0.879
20 Taiwan 0.846

Total world daily: 75.988
Total world annual: 28,460

Transport in the UK

The number of licensed vehicles in Great Britain has more than tripled over the last four decades. In 1961 there were under 9.0 million licensed vehicles. By 1981 there were 19.3 million, and by 2003, 31.2 million. Private cars accounted for an increasing proportion of this total - 59 per cent in 1961, 77 per cent in 1981, and 80 per cent in 2003.

(Source: HM govt. DFT)

Current UK power production

There are around 23 large coal fired plant (some of which also burn some gas or oil), 17 nuclear plants, 8 large oil plants and 11 new combined cycle gas turbines (CCGTs) and several others. Large in this context means over 100MW. (The percentage of generation by fuel type in 1995 was 48% coal, 23% nuclear, 17% CCGT and open cycle gas turbines, 9% interconnectors and 1% oil and the remainder hydro and the new renewables).

 

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